Scenario Planning

A regular feature, inviting key individuals to comment on an aspect of scenario planning. This month Professor Stephen Page from Stirling University discusses Crisis Management in Tourism.

CRISIS MANAGEMENT

"Organisations such as Visit Scotland are therefore ensuring they can adapt and respond to crises with the new emphasis of being prepared for the unexpected." Prof. Stephen Page

Tourism is widely acknowledged as one of the growth areas of the world economy, with its ability to achieve rates of growth which many governments and societies have now become  dependent upon.  At the same time, analysts and researchers have pointed to the increasing ‘turbulence’, ‘uncertainty’ and fluctuations in tourism that arise from short-term crises.  These crises may be man-made (i.e. a failure in a management system or human error or more extreme deliberate events linked to terrorism) or natural disasters.  There is also a growing recognition from analysts, such as the World Tourism Organisation’s Dirk Glaeßer in his ‘Crisis Management’ book, that natural disasters are growing in their occurrence and intensity.

Both man-made and natural disasters, normally termed crises, pose major management challenges for the tourism sector in terms of:

• short-term interruptions to normal tourism activities and massive economic impacts;
• major media reporting and the global transmission of negative images (e.g. the burning of animals during Foot and Mouth disease);
• short-term downturns in visitor interest and arrivals;
• damage to long-term marketing and image building in the destination and tourism markets.

It should come as no surprise that analysts and researchers have developed specialist knowledge and tools to manage crises in tourism.  One of the greatest tools in their armoury is scenario planning, looking at ‘what if X or Y happens?’, and ‘how would we manage as an organisation or business?’.  One logical consequence of this interest in scenario planning is the evolution of business continuity planning (i.e. how to continue to operate and survive a crisis as a business or organisation).  Some of the recent interest in this new mantra – business continuity planning can be found in the 2004 Civil Contingencies Act in the UK.  This legislation provides an emergency planning and response framework for government and local authorities, the latter now given the same status to respond as an emergency service.  It also stresses the importance of business continuity, revising much of the crisis management legislation from the 1930s and 1950s to meet new challenges like terrorism.

Organisations such as Visit Scotland are therefore ensuring they can adapt and respond to crises with the new emphasis of being prepared for the unexpected.  For the tourism sector, this new mantra may have parallels with being prepared in 2000 for the Millennium Bug – which never happened.  Yet one thing is certain in tourism – crises occur and they can devastate the economy and environment.  In 2006, the current concern is with Avian Flu as a possible crisis which might lead to a Flu Pandemic if the H5N1 Bird Flu virus mutates to a human form.  The threat is a good example of global governments engaging in scenario planning and developing crisis plans to manage the social and economic consequences of human influenza.

Crisis management, with its well developed tools and techniques is an invaluable planning approach to anticipate, manage and recover from a crisis.  This planning approach need not be a costly, lengthy and complex task.  Above all, it requires an awareness of your business and organisation and its ability to plan for, and respond to a crisis.  No-one really knows how we will respond to a crisis: yet planning and simple systems will ensure that should the unthinkable happen, we may at least be able to survive the event and continue to operate as businesses and organisations.  With tourism a notoriously fickle industry easily affected by crises, developing a level of understanding, awareness and the tools to manage during a crisis are becoming a prerequisite for long-term business sustainability.

Professor Stephen J. Page
Stirling University
April 2006

Stephen J. Page is Scottish Enterprise Professor of Tourism Management in the Department of Marketing at the University of Stirling, Stirling, Scotland and is currently working with Visit Scotland on the potential impact which Avian Flu and a Flu Pandemic may pose for Scottish tourism

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