The Future Foundation has been commissioned by Scenario Planning Group for Scottish Tourism to produce forecasts of visitor numbers and visitor expenditure for the years to 2025, with specific reference to 2015.

The central forecast produced implies reasonably buoyant growth in visitor numbers and expenditure over the next 20 years. Visitor numbers are projected to increase from the 17.3m recorded in 2005 to 21.8m in 2015 and 27.3m by 2025. Overall growth will average 2.3% pa over this 20 year period. International arrivals will increase more rapidly than domestic ones, with the share of foreign visitors increasing from 13.9% in 2005 to almost 16% by 2015.

Expenditure by tourists (having been adjusted for future price inflation and presented in 2005 price terms) will increase rather more rapidly than numbers (implying an increase in real spend per visitor). Overall we expect expenditure to increase by around 4% pa in real terms with international spend again increasing more rapidly – its share going up from just under 29% currently to around 33% by 2015.

Long term econometric forecasts are primarily driven by economic conditions and should be viewed as a potential guide to the future rather than an exact future.  The forecasts also include a pessimistic and optimistic range of values.

It should be noted that tourism is impacted by external events such as foot and mouth disease, human pandemics or currency markets shocks which are not accounted for in the these forecasts. As every country in the world offers a tourism proposition, destination branding will be even more important in the future and the forecasts illustrate the need for continuous investment. The purpose of the long term forecasts is to help investors and the industry understand what the potential and the general direction of tourism in Scotland to 2025.

   Visitor Forecasts to Scotland: 2005 - 2025 (PDF 152Kb)

For further information please contact research@visitscotland.com