Viewpoint... is a regular feature, inviting key individuals to comment on the issues facing the Scottish Tourism Industry.  This month Ian Yeoman defines the trends that will shape the tourist of tomorrow?

Please note all Viewpoint...articles are not policies of VisitScotland but individual opinions of the authors. The material should not be regarded as specific advice and no action should be taken with reliance on it. Neither the authors nor VisitScotland accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage in any way of reliance placed upon the material.

Trends that will shape the tourist of tomorrow?

Our desire for luxury is changing; western consumers are not as concerned with materialism, but rather enrichment and time. This is different for consumers from emerging economies who are more concerned with materialism. Western consumers perceive ‘time’ as the most important luxury experience. Hence the rise of slow food, slow cities and slow love.  Tomorrow’s tourist will want to explore the destination, will stay longer and go deeper.

From another perspective, London’s Gatwick Airport now sells ‘rooms by the hour’ so one can find some time to sleep, rather than wait in the airport lounge. In order to create an exclusive experience, luxury is becoming more about craftsmanship and authenticity. For example, www.coultureclub.com offers high quality hand crafted gifts bespoke for you. Today, luxury is more accessible to the middle classes; we therefore rent it rather than own it. Items such as a luxury handbag or classic sports car are available to rent for a weekend.  The Ritz Carlton Hotel in New York, now offers free use of Merc Sports cars for all guests staying in suites, based on the idea, that those guests will probably buy the car.

An anxious society, concerned with health means that security is very important in the future. This means destinations must be safe. South Africa is very worried about hosting the football World Cup in 2010 because of the high levels of violence and murder in the country and what affect this could have on the destination's image when the world’s media is focused on it.. Our concern for health means we try and stay young, hence well being, spas will be more important in the future – the tourist is searching for the fountain of youth.   The future of sports activity is about outdoor niche sports rather than football, cricket and rugby as the tourist wants to try new experiences rather than follow the mainstream.

Today’s consumer faces time pressures, therefore how can you save the tourist time. How about online check in as offered by Omni Hotels or Shangri La Hotels offer a concierge service, where they will send a butler to your home, pack your bags, arrange transfer of your luggage and unpack your bags at your hotel.

Hedonism and erotica are important trends for the future. Hedonism is about pleasure seeking. With more singletons in society travelling in ‘tribes’ as mentioned by Ethan Watters in her book. In the UK, 40% of the sports / adventure market is focused on the  tribe market. Here, tribes come to cities for the weekend, but do rural sporting activities i.e., paint balling, canoeing, hill walking, etc. Tourists want to have fun! Las Vegas is the ultimate in adult entertainment, whereas Disney is a children’s fun palace. However, many destinations shy away from adult hedonism, the new puritan in society seeks to stop others having fun. It is politically incorrect to go to a lap dancing establishment or party the night away. If you tell the tourist what they can’t do and place restrictions on activities, they will simply go to destinations where they can have fun! So, if tourism in some places, is perceived as politically incorrect the experience will become pleasure less and bland. On the same note, destinations with lots of regulation – have barriers to growth, visa restrictions stops people coming to destinations.  For example, the USA has a problem with visitors coming from China and India as they require visas and they can be difficult to obtain. If you remove visa restrictions, you get more tourists.

In the future, more tourists will be interested in real, simple, ethical, rooted and honest experiences.  Experiences that are a reflection of the destination. This is what eco tourism all about, micro businesses focused on a niche environmental experience

Tomorrow’s tourist will be older due to demography structures. Youth hostels will disappear and be replaced by Elder hostels. In addition, grandtravellers will emerge, where grandparents travel with grandchildren. The future is about fewer children where relatives will indulge and pamper them.

Science and technology means we are discovering new things all the time. There will be more medical conferences as associations meet more often to discuss discovery. New technology means wireless cities and the convergence of technologies sees the end of city maps by 2020 as consumers use mobile phones as map routers. In the future, tourists will never get lost because they will be tagged by blue tooth technologies and tracked by big brother.

Destinations have to be concerned about the environment, whether this is their carbon footprint or pollution. Many international companies and professional associations will be driven by social responsibility and procurement guidelines. If, for example, destinations don’t have a green policy, they will simply lose conference business.

Today’s consumer wants changes, be it hairstyles every 18 months or tourists constantly searching out new experiences, therefore destinations need to keep reinventing themselves and presenting innovative products.

Society now offers the tourist so much choice, in fact there isn’t a country in the world not offering a tourism proposition, whether this is Afghanistan as the ‘Last Unconquered Mountains of the World ‘or ‘Incredible India'. Destinations with a strong brand will be able to distinguish themselves from the competition through heuristic choices.

In the future it will be a lot more difficult to stereo type tourists by activity and social – economic group. Those tourists will want to experience everything, they will indulge themselves in Las Vegas, seek isolation in Hawaii or undertake an eco tourism adventure in Africa. The future of tourism is the ‘Long Tail’ as Chris Anderson recalls in his book.  So, are you confused? Futures are never certain.

Ian Yeoman is author of a new book, called Tomorrows Tourist, which is published by Elsevier in April 2008

Previous Viewpoints - Archive

Past features from invited key individuals commenting on aspects of scenario planning.